Campaign section

2026

A recap of the races that moved the map. Same ruler for both parties. A grade is about the campaign against the state's baseline. It is not a grade of the voters, and it is not an endorsement.

2026 The class Issues Votes 2028

The South

A map that does not have a recent twin

Texas elected a Democratic senator for the first time since 1994 and a Democratic governor for the first time since 1995. South Carolina elected a Democrat to the Senate for the first time since 1998. North Carolina's open seat went to Roy Cooper by about 20 points. Georgia reelected Jon Ossoff by about 18 and flipped the governor's office.

Mississippi's result is the one to read slowly. Scott Colom won by about 4,600 votes. Cindy Hyde-Smith conceded. He is the first Black senator from that state since Reconstruction, and the first Democrat to win a Senate race there since 1982. Florida did not join them. Ashley Moody held the Senate seat. Byron Donalds, the first Black governor of Florida, held that office for the Republicans.

Later years can sit in this same file. 2026 is the label so the desk can do this again without pretending one night is the whole archive.

How the grade works

AFlipped a seat the other party had held for a generation, or won a state the other party carries for president, by a margin the map did not promise.
BWon the race the map suggested, with a message that fit the state.
CWon, but left votes on the table, or held a friendly state by less than the state usually allows.
DLost a seat the party had a real chance to keep, or won so narrowly the campaign never settled it.
FLost a seat the party had held for decades, and the public record of the campaign is the reason.
IIncomplete. The state has not finished the count. A lead is not a call.

Texas · Senate · Flip

James Talarico D

Against Ken Paxton

About 12 points. First Democratic statewide win in Texas since 1994.

Texas House. No years in Congress. The seat had been John Cornyn's. Cornyn lost the Republican primary and was not on this ballot.

Why this result

Talarico won an open seat in a state Republicans have carried for president for a generation. The margin was not a squeaker. Younger voters moved the result, according to the ABC News Voter Poll.

The other campaign

Paxton's campaign gets the failing mark on this card. He was the attorney general, not the incumbent senator, and he carried a long public record of legal trouble into a race for a seat his party had not lost in decades. Trump endorsed him in the primary over Cornyn. The general election did not reward that choice.

Texas · Governor · Flip

Gina Hinojosa D

Against Greg Abbott

Incumbent defeated. First Democratic governor of Texas since 1995. She is the state's first Latina governor.

Texas House. No years in Congress. Abbott had been governor since 2015.

Why this result

Beating a three-term incumbent in Texas is not a wave footnote. It is the first Democratic governor since Ann Richards left office.

The other campaign

Abbott's campaign lost the office his party had held for thirty years. That is a failed reelection, not a bad map. The same night the Senate seat flipped, so the loss was not a fluke of one ballot line.

South Carolina · Senate · Flip

Annie Andrews D

Against Darline Graham

About 4 points, 51 to 47. First Democrat elected to this seat since 1998.

Pediatrician. No years in Congress. Graham was appointed in July 2026 after her brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham, died. Months in office, not years.

Why this result

Andrews won a state that has not sent a Democrat to the Senate in this century, against an appointed incumbent, in a single cycle. Black voters backed her by a wide margin in the ABC News Voter Poll, in line with recent Democratic Senate performance in the state. The difference was the rest of the electorate moving enough to finish it.

The other campaign

Graham had no time to build her own Senate record. The campaign still lost a seat Republicans have treated as safe. A short appointment is an explanation. It is not a save.

Georgia · Senate · Hold

Jon Ossoff D

Against Mike Collins

About 18 points, roughly 59 to 41.

5 years in the Senate, since January 2021. He first won this seat in a 2021 runoff.

Why this result

Ossoff was ranked, before the year started, as the Democrat most likely to lose. He won about 6 in 10 Georgia voters. The ABC News Voter Poll found he improved on recent Democratic margins with white voters and won younger voters by a much wider gap than in 2022.

The other campaign

Collins, a House member, needed the state to revert to a Republican Senate vote. It went the other way, and not by a point.

Georgia · Governor · Flip

Keisha Lance Bottoms D

Against Rick Jackson

About 8 points. Open seat. Brian Kemp was term-limited.

Former mayor of Atlanta. No years in Congress.

Why this result

Georgia's governor's office flipped the same night the Senate hold turned into a rout. Bottoms is the first Black woman elected governor of any state.

The other campaign

Jackson was running for an open seat in a Republican-held office, not against an incumbent. The campaign did not hold the office Kemp was leaving.

North Carolina · Senate · Flip

Roy Cooper D

Against Michael Whatley

About 20 points, 58.7 to 39.1. Open seat. Thom Tillis retired.

No years in Congress. Eight years as governor before this race.

Why this result

This was the first Senate flip called on election night, in a state Trump carried three times. A 20-point margin is not a photo finish. Cooper's name was the campaign.

The other campaign

Whatley, a party official, never closed the gap with a former governor who had already won statewide. The Republican campaign did not make this a contest by the time the networks called it, at 8:23 p.m.

Mississippi · Senate · Flip

Scott Colom D

Against Cindy Hyde-Smith

About 4,600 votes, 49.2 to 48.7. Called Wednesday by AP and CNN. Hyde-Smith conceded.

District attorney. No years in Congress. Hyde-Smith had been in the Senate since 2018, about eight years. Colom is the first Black senator from Mississippi since Reconstruction, and the first Democrat to win a Senate race here since 1982.

Why this result

The win is historic. The margin is not. Half a point, after late absentees, is a campaign that finished the job and did not bury it. The concession is what makes it a result rather than a dispute.

The other campaign

Hyde-Smith lost an incumbent race in a state her party usually banks. She conceded. That is the fact that matters for the count. The grade is a D for an incumbent loss in a deep-red state, recorded here on her side of the card: the seat was hers to hold.

Florida · Senate · Hold

Ashley Moody R

Against Angie Nixon

About 3 points, 51 to 48.

Appointed to the Senate in 2025. Under two years.

Why this result

Moody kept the seat. Florida has been moving Republican. A 3-point hold is a win that did not look like a landslide.

The other campaign

Nixon got inside 3 points in a state Democrats have not been winning statewide. That is a close loss, not a collapse.

Florida · Governor · Hold

Byron Donalds R

Against David Jolly

Republican hold of an open seat. Donalds is the first Black governor of Florida.

U.S. House since 2021. About five years in Congress.

Why this result

The party that holds Florida held the governor's office, and did it with a candidate who is a historic first for the state. A hold in a state your party already carries is a B on this scale. History is noted beside the grade, not instead of it.

The other campaign

Jolly, a former Republican now running as a Democrat, did not flip the state.

Alabama · Governor · Hold

Tommy Tuberville R

Against Doug Jones

Republican hold.

U.S. Senate since 2021. About five years in Congress.

Why this result

Alabama stayed Republican. Jones had won a special Senate election here in 2017 and lost the regular one in 2020. The 2026 governor's race did not reopen that door.

The other campaign

Jones's campaign could not repeat 2017. A Democratic win in Alabama would have been an A. This was not that race.

Tennessee · Governor · Hold

Marsha Blackburn R

Against Jerri Green

Republican hold. Blackburn is the first woman elected governor of Tennessee.

House from 2003 to 2019, Senate since 2019. About 23 years in Congress.

Why this result

A long congressional career converted into a governor's office the party already held. The first for a woman in the state is a fact about the winner, not a change of party.

The other campaign

Green did not make Tennessee a flip.

Kansas · Senate · Flip

Adam Hamilton D

Against Roger Marshall

About 5 points, 51 to 46. First Democratic senator from Kansas since 1932.

No years in Congress before this win. Marshall had been in the House from 2017 to 2021 and in the Senate since 2021. About nine years in Congress.

Why this result

Unseating an incumbent in Kansas, for a party shut out of this seat since the Depression, is the definition of an A on a baseline grade. The ABC News Voter Poll found about 1 in 10 Trump voters did not stay with Marshall.

The other campaign

Marshall's incumbency was not enough. A sitting senator who loses a state his party treats as safe gets a D on the other side of this result.

Iowa · Senate · Flip

Josh Turek D

Against Ashley Hinson

About 4 points, 50.5 to 46.4. Open seat. Joni Ernst retired.

Not a member of Congress before this race. Hinson was a member of the House.

Why this result

An open Republican seat flipped by 4 points. Real, and not a once-a-century rupture on the order of Texas or Kansas.

The other campaign

Hinson could not hold Ernst's seat. A House member moving up and losing an open Senate race in a Republican state is a missed hold.

Iowa · Governor · Flip

Rob Sand D

Against Zach Lahn

About 13 points. Open seat. Kim Reynolds is retiring. Democrats had not held this office since 2011.

State auditor. No years in Congress.

Why this result

Thirteen points in a state that has voted Republican for president, for an office the party had lost for fifteen years, is more than a modest flip.

The other campaign

Lahn was running for an open seat and lost it by a margin that will be hard to call a near-miss.

Maine · Senate · Flip

Troy Jackson D

Against Susan Collins

About 5 points, low 53s to mid 46s. Collins conceded Wednesday.

Maine Senate. No years in Congress. Collins had been in the U.S. Senate since 1997. Thirty years.

Why this result

Defeating a senator who had won this seat for three decades is a campaign result, not a demographic accident. Maine has voted Democratic for president. Collins had survived that for years. She did not this time.

The other campaign

Collins's campaign gets a D. Thirty years of ticket-splitting ended by about 5 points. She conceded. The grade is not a comment on her votes. It is the score of a reelection that failed.

Ohio · Senate · Flip

Sherrod Brown D

Against Jon Husted

About 5 points, 50 to 45. Special election for the seat J.D. Vance left.

Brown was in the House from 1993 to 2007 and the Senate from 2007 to 2025. About 26 years in Congress before this return. Husted was appointed to the seat in 2025.

Why this result

A former senator took back a seat in a state that has moved Republican, against an appointed incumbent, by about 5 points. That is a flip. It is also a candidate voters already knew, which is why it is a B and not an A.

The other campaign

Husted had less than a full term to become the incumbent in fact as well as in name. He lost the special.

Ohio · Governor · Flip

Amy Acton D

Against Vivek Ramaswamy

About 5 points. Open seat. Mike DeWine was term-limited. Acton is the first woman elected governor of Ohio.

Former director of the Ohio Department of Health. No years in Congress.

Why this result

A physician and former state health director beat a nationally known Republican for an open office, by about 5 points, in a Republican-leaning state.

The other campaign

Ramaswamy's campaign had name recognition and still lost an open seat. National profile did not substitute for a state campaign.

Nevada · Governor · Flip

Aaron Ford D

Against Joe Lombardo

About 7 points. Incumbent defeated.

Nevada attorney general. No years in Congress.

Why this result

Ford unseated an incumbent in a state both parties can win. Seven points is a clear result, not a century-long realignment.

The other campaign

Lombardo lost the office he held. An incumbent loss in a swing state is a failed reelection, a D on his side of the card.

Michigan · Senate · Hold

Abdul El-Sayed D

Against Mike Rogers

About 5 points. Open seat. Gary Peters retired. El-Sayed is the first Muslim elected to the U.S. Senate.

No years in Congress. Rogers is a former House member.

Why this result

Democrats held an open seat in a state that decides national elections, by about 5 points. The religious first is a fact he has lived in public. It is not the grade.

The other campaign

Rogers could not take a Democratic open seat. A former House member losing a 5-point race is a straightforward loss.

New Hampshire · Senate · Hold

Chris Pappas D

Against John E. Sununu

Democratic hold. Open seat. Jeanne Shaheen retired. Sununu conceded.

U.S. House since 2019. About seven years in Congress.

Why this result

The party that held the seat kept it, with a sitting House member, against a former senator. Sununu's concession closed it.

The other campaign

Sununu's return did not work. A famous name from an earlier Senate is not a campaign.

Minnesota · Senate · Hold

Peggy Flanagan D

Against Michele Tafoya

About 54 to the mid-40s. Open seat. Tina Smith retired.

Lieutenant governor. A citizen of the White Earth Nation. No years in Congress.

Why this result

Democrats held the seat with the lieutenant governor. That is the expected path in Minnesota, executed.

The other campaign

Tafoya did not convert a celebrity candidacy into a flip.

Wisconsin · Governor · Hold

David Crowley D

Against Tom Tiffany

Democratic hold. Crowley is the first Black governor of Wisconsin.

No years in Congress. Tiffany was a member of the House.

Why this result

Democrats kept a competitive state's governor's office. The historic first is real and sits next to a hold, so the craft grade stays a B.

The other campaign

Tiffany left the House to run and did not take the office.

Nebraska · Senate · Hold

Pete Ricketts R

Against Dan Osborn

About 5 points. Osborn ran as an independent. The Democratic nominee had withdrawn.

U.S. Senate since 2023. About three years.

Why this result

Ricketts held the seat. Five points against an independent, with no Democratic nominee on the ballot, is a thinner hold than Nebraska usually gives a Republican incumbent.

The other campaign

Osborn made a red-state Senate race close without the Democratic line. He did not win it.

Alaska · Senate · Uncalled

Mary Peltola leads D

Against Dan Sullivan

Peltola led by about 4,000 votes, 48.7 to 47.1, with roughly 86 percent counted as of Nov. 11. She has said she won. The state has not called it. Ranked-choice tabulation is Nov. 18 if no one reaches 50 percent.

Peltola served in the U.S. House. Sullivan has been in the Senate since 2015, about 11 years.

Why this result

There is no why-they-won until the ranked-choice rounds are done. First-choice votes are not the finish line in Alaska. Election HQ does not call this race.

The other campaign

Sullivan is the incumbent and is trailing on first-choice votes. That is a fact about the count. It is not a result.

North Carolina · Congress · Flip

Five House seats D

Against The Republican incumbents in the 6th, 9th, 11th, 13th, and 14th

Called as flips. District margins were not in the wire used for this card.

These are U.S. House seats, two-year terms. A new member has zero years in Congress. An incumbent who lost had however long that district had kept them.

Why this result

Five House flips in one southern state, on a new map drawn in 2025, is a congressional result, not a Senate footnote. The campaign file grades the House the same way it grades the Senate.

The other campaign

The Republican campaigns in those districts did not hold seats the new lines had been drawn to protect.

Texas · Congress · Flip

Katy Padilla Stout D

Against Open seat, Texas 23rd

Called as a Democratic flip of the seat left vacant when Tony Gonzales resigned.

No years in Congress before this win. The same night, Jace Yarbrough was called the winner of the redrawn 32nd, a Republican flip of Julie Johnson's district.

Why this result

Texas did not move in one direction. Democrats took the vacant 23rd. Republicans took the redrawn 32nd. Both are House results. A single-seat flip without a published margin is a B, not an A.

The other campaign

The 32nd is the Republican side of the same night: a win on a new map, graded B for Yarbrough, and a loss for the Democrat the lines were drawn away from.

Michigan · Congress · Flip

William Lawrence, Sean McCann, Christina Hines D

Against Tom Barrett, Bill Huizenga, and the Republican line in the 10th

Three Michigan House seats called as Democratic flips, including incumbents Barrett and Huizenga.

House terms are two years. Beating an incumbent ends that member's years in Congress in January.

Why this result

Unseating sitting House members is the congressional version of the Senate flips. Three in one state is a real map change. Without a district-by-district margin in the wire, the grade stays a B.

The other campaign

Barrett and Huizenga lost the seats they held. An incumbent loss in the House is a failed reelection, the same ruler used on the Senate cards.

Pennsylvania · Congress · Flip

Bob Brooks, Kristina Knickerbocker, J.D. Ford D

Against Ryan Mackenzie, Mike Turner, Victoria Spartz

Called flips: Pennsylvania's 7th, Ohio's 10th, Indiana's 5th. Incumbents unseated.

Spartz, Turner, and Mackenzie were the sitting members. Their years in Congress stop when the new term starts, unless a recount reverses a call. None of these three was listed as uncalled on Thursday morning.

Why this result

Each card is an incumbent House member losing. That is the grade the Senate file already uses. Congress was left off the first pass. It is on this one.

The other campaign

The three Republican campaigns did not hold the districts. Marcy Kaptur, in Ohio's 9th, is the other side of the night: a Democratic incumbent who kept the seat.

Minnesota · Congress · Uncalled

Not called —

Against Not called

Thursday morning: Minnesota's 1st was inside about 321 votes, North Carolina's 5th inside about 335, Tennessee's 4th inside about 280, with provisional ballots and recount talk still open. Louisiana's 5th and 6th go to December 12 runoffs.

The sitting members remain in office until a winner is sworn in.

Why this result

A House race inside a few hundred votes does not get a grade. The count is the result. Election HQ does not call these.

The other campaign

The incumbents in those seats have not lost, and the challengers have not won, until the canvass or the runoff says so.

Counts are from calls by AP, NBC, CNN, or Decision Desk, read Thursday, Nov. 12. House district briefs are the next layer of this file. We are not inventing a grade for a district we have not read. Alaska is incomplete until Nov. 18.